Many seniors are unlikely to move, as new housing developments will remove them from friends and local services. Many also prefer larger homes to accommodate visiting friends and family.
THE generous seniors stamp duty exemption announced in the state budget is so narrowly targeted that only a fraction of older home owners are likely to benefit, according to government figures.
At the same time, new academic research suggests that it will take more than cutting stamp duty to get seniors to downsize, given most want to stay where they are.
The $600,000 threshold for the exemption will exclude many downsizing couples who want to remain in their suburb and who seek a larger dwelling than a one-bedroom unit.
In almost half the 10 local government areas with the highest senior populations, including Mosman, Woollahra, Ku-ring-gai and Canada Bay, average unit prices exceed the threshold, the latest figures from Housing NSW show.
The $10 million allocated in the budget for the seniors' stamp duty exemption would assist 444 buyers in the next financial year if the buyers took the maximum allowable benefit - Treasury estimates between 1000 and 2000 buyers will take it up.
A Treasury spokesman said: ''Not everyone will buy a $600,000 home and gain the maximum benefit. More than 75 per cent of properties sold in NSW are worth under $600,000.''
Paul Versteege, of the National Seniors Association, said: ''We can see significant drawbacks in the current scheme. It's temporary, it's restricted to newly constructed homes, which means buyers have to take a risk, and it also restricts their choice, typically locking them into outer suburbs [where new developments are being built].
''However, on the central coast, for example, there are lots of retirees moving into new suburbs. It's going to help those people.''
The Urban Development Insti- tute of Australia, a developer lobby group, said the stamp duty exemptions in the budget, including the seniors' exemption, could cause house prices to rise by priming demand without accelerating supply.
''The stamp duty reductions and exemptions will serve to further fuel housing demand,'' a spokesman said. ''It is therefore critical that the levers of government are targeted towards removing supply bottlenecks."
A study suggests that stamp duty exemptions will not shift many older people from their large homes.
''Most older Australians generally wish to age in their own home and are not predisposed to vacate to smaller accommodation,'' said Bruce Judd of the University of NSW.
A recent study headed by Professor Judd for the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute found most older people live, as singles or couples, in owner-occupied detached houses with three or more bedrooms.
Technically, 84 per cent of their houses would be regarded as underused but most surveyed regarded their dwelling as well used and of a size suitable for their purposes. These included accommodating friends, family and grandchildren, and using spare room space for a home office or study.
''Over 90 per cent of older home owners indicated that they favoured remaining in their own home with the support of professional care services,'' he said.
''Older home owners will usually seek to remain in a community-based setting - proximity to family and friends, as well as medical, transport and familiar community facilities, all play a role in anchoring people to their … house and neighbourhood.''
The report noted they valued convenient access to public transport, retail, medical, community, cultural and recreational facilities.
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